Less precipitation, higher temperatures expected this winter across Nepal

KATHMANDU: Nepal is likely to experience below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures during the winter period from Mangsir 15 to Falgun 16, according to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology.

In its seasonal assessment released on Wednesday, the department stated that most parts of the country are expected to receive less than normal winter precipitation, while both maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to remain higher than the seasonal average.

Rainfall Outlook

The department reported mixed rainfall probabilities for the northern parts of Sudurpaschim and Karnali provinces and the north-western region of Gandaki Province, where the chances of below-normal, normal, or above-normal rainfall are equal.

However, several areas show a stronger likelihood of below-average rainfall:

• 55–65% probability in

  • Eastern and southern Sudurpaschim

  • Southern Karnali

  • Western Lumbini

  • Southern Bagmati

  • Northern Madhes

  • Central and eastern Koshi

• 45–55% probability in

  • Central Sudurpaschim and Karnali

  • Central and eastern Lumbini

  • Eastern Gandaki

  • Central and northern Bagmati

  • Southern Madhes

  • Some parts of Koshi

• 35–45% probability in the remaining regions of the country.

Maximum Temperature Outlook

Most regions are predicted to record higher-than-average maximum temperatures this winter:

• 55–65% probability in

  • Northern and southern Gandaki

  • Southern Bagmati

  • Northern and south-western Koshi

• 45–55% probability in

  • Northern Karnali

  • Northern Lumbini

  • Remaining areas of Koshi, Bagmati, and Gandaki

• 35–45% probability in

  • South-western Sudurpaschim

  • South-western Karnali

  • Western Lumbini

Lumbini’s southern belt and parts of Madhes Province show equal chances of below-normal, normal, or above-normal maximum temperatures.

Minimum Temperature Outlook

The department also forecast that minimum temperatures are likely to remain above normal across the country:

• 55–65% probability in

  • Northern and south-western Sudurpaschim

  • Central and northern Karnali

  • Most of Lumbini

  • North-eastern and south-western Bagmati

  • Much of Madhes

  • Southern and north-western Koshi

• 35–55% probability in the remaining regions.

The seasonal outlook suggests a warmer and drier winter, which may affect agriculture, water availability, and winter weather patterns across Nepal.