Prolonged monsoon raises chances of a rainy Dashain

KATHMANDU: As this year’s Dashain approaches, many people are wondering whether the weather will be rainy or clear.

With the monsoon season extending beyond its usual period, there’s growing curiosity about whether the monsoon will withdraw before Dashain or linger during the festive period.

Two years ago, on the day of Dashain Tika, many parts of Nepal experienced rain, leading to concerns that a similar situation could occur this year. These concerns are amplified by the fact that the monsoon has yet to retreat.

The average date for the monsoon to withdraw from Nepal is Oct 2, but as of today, it has not yet subsided.

According to Govinda Jha, a meteorologist from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, there is a likelihood of a low-pressure weather system moving northwest from the Assam region of India. “This could influence the central and eastern regions of Nepal today and tomorrow,” Jha said. “There is no chance of the monsoon retreating in the next three days.”

India’s Meteorological Department has predicted heavy to very heavy rainfall in parts of its northeastern region, including Assam and Meghalaya, until early next week.

Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology also mentioned earlier today that this weather system could have a partial impact on the country.

There is a possibility of heavy rain in a few places in Koshi State tonight and on Thursday afternoon. On Thursday night, partial to moderate cloud cover is expected in the Koshi, Bagmati, Lumbini, and Gandaki States. The department has urged caution in Koshi, Bagmati, and Gandaki States over the next 24 hours, particularly for road and air transportation, health services, tourism, and mountaineering activities.

According to the department, as of September 30, the total recorded rainfall this year has reached 1,706.2 millimeters.

While the monsoon is expected to begin retreating from the far-western regions of Nepal later this week, it is likely to remain active in Koshi State until the day of Dashain Tika, which falls on Oct 12. “As long as monsoon winds persist, there will be chances of rain, meaning a rainy Dashain is possible in Koshi State,” said meteorologist Dr. Dharma Raj Upreti. “However, there won’t be heavy or extremely heavy rainfall like we’ve seen in recent days.”