Will it rain during Dashain this year or will the weather be clear?

KATHMANDU: Many people are wondering whether the monsoon will end before Dashain or if it will continue, especially since the monsoon hasn’t withdrawn by its average time.

Many parts of Nepal experienced rain two years ago on the day of Dashain Tika.

This year, the projected date for the monsoon to withdraw from Nepal is Oct 2, which is right after the start of Dashain on Ghatasthapana.

Meteorologists say it is uncertain if the monsoon will withdraw before Dashain or linger on.

Monsoon Withdrawal is Uncertain

Senior meteorologist Pratibha Manandhar from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology explained that typically, rain continues around the predicted withdrawal date.

Additionally, the current La Niña phenomenon may delay dry conditions even after the monsoon withdraws. La Niña, which causes above-average rainfall in Nepal, is marked by cooler-than-usual temperatures in the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean.

“The predicted date for monsoon arrival and withdrawal is never exact—it can fluctuate by four or five days,” said Manandhar. “We can’t expect a clear sky from Oct 3, but rainfall will gradually decrease from the third week of September.”

Possibility of Rain During Dashain

Senior divisional meteorologist Vibhooti Pokharel from the department’s climate evaluation branch added that recent weather patterns indicate a chance of rain during Dashain.

“We will have clearer indications in the coming days. We also analyze the monsoon withdrawal patterns in other monsoon-affected regions like Rajasthan, India. Once it begins withdrawing there, we will see more definite signs for Nepal.”

Two years ago, many parts of Nepal experienced rain on Dashain’s Tika day. “Even if it doesn’t rain on Tika, the possibility of rain on some days after Ghatasthapana cannot be ruled out,” Pokharel said.